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报告摘要

n  6月份USDA的报告显示，2018/19年度全球棉花产需缺口为107.9万吨，全球棉花供给偏紧。

n  2018/19年度国内棉花产量下降，消费增加，期末库存下降，产需缺口扩大。

n  2018年全国棉花实播面积4900.1万亩，同比减少80.7万亩，减幅1.6%，其中，新疆实播面积为3457.0万亩，同比增长2.2%。

n  PX产能释放较大，供给宽松，基本面相对较弱，PTA供需基本平衡，价格弹性较小，关注下游聚酯需求。

Ø  棉花及PTA上半年行情回顾

Ø  棉花产业供需状况分析与预测

Ø  总结及2018年下半年行情展望

Ø  策略推荐

Abstract

n  The latest USDA’s report shows that the global cotton production shortfall will be 1.079 million tons in 2018/19. The world cotton market will become tight.

n  Domestic cotton production will decline in 2018/19, with increase in consumption and drop in ending stocks, leading to the expansion of production and demand gap.

n  In 2018, the actual sowing area of cotton in China was 49 million mu, 807,000 mu or 1.6 percent less than one year ago. Among them, Xinjiang’s actual sowing area was 34.57 million mu, increased by 2.2 percent year-on-year.

n  PX will have a large capacity release, with loose supply and relatively weak demand. The supply and demand of PTA is basically balanced, and the PTA price elasticity is small. Meanwhile, polyester downstream demand should be concerned.

Ø  Market review of cotton and PTA in 1H18

Ø  Analysis and forecast on supply and demand of Cotton Industry

Ø  Summary and market outlook for 2H18

Ø  Strategy recommendation

20180709前海期货—蛋白粕产业链半年报—供需格局改善叠加成本支撑 蛋白粕走强可期.pdf