20180709前海期货农副产品半年报：食糖弱势难逆转 苹果减产价可期
报告摘要
n 2017/18榨季全球食糖供给宽松，印度等国增产幅度较大，下半年国际糖市出口压力较大。2018/19榨季全球食糖供需平衡将相对收紧，库存消费比下降。
n 根据中国农业农村部门的预估，2018/19榨季国内食糖产需缺口为452万吨，低于2017/18榨季的469万吨，假设在进口、抛储和走私量没有明显变化的情况下，国内食糖供给来年将更加宽松。
n 根据全国苹果套袋减产的统计数据看，2018年新果减产幅度在35%-40%。新年度苹果供给较紧。
Ø 食糖和苹果上半年行情回顾
Ø 食糖和苹果供需状况分析及预测
Ø 总结及下半年行情展望
Ø 策略推荐
Abstract
n In 2017/18, the global sugar supply was sufficient. Countries such as India largely increased their production, and worldwide sugar market will face a greater export pressure in 2H18. The global balance of sugar supply and demand will be relatively tight, with the stocks-to-use ratio falling in 2018/19.
n According to the MARA’s forecast, the domestic sugar production shortfall will be 4.52 million tons in 2018/19, which may be lower than the amount (4.69 million tons) in 2017/18. Assuming that there is no significant change in import, storage and smuggling, the domestic sugar supply will be more sufficient in the coming year.
n According to the statistics, the yield reduction will be 35 percent to 40 percent in 2018, which indicates a tight supply of apple in the coming year.
Ø Market review of sugar and apple in 1H18
Ø Analysis and forecast on supply and demand of sugar and apple
Ø Summary and market outlook for 2H18
Ø Strategy recommendation
20180709前海期货—农副产品产业链半年报—食糖弱势难逆转 苹果减产价可期.pdf
