20180709前海期货有色金属半年报：铜供需格局偏宽松 国内铝价弱势难改
报告摘要
n 全球与国内铜精矿供应偏宽松，冶炼厂加工费有望上升。电解铜产量以及进口量较去年同期都有所增加，但下游需求并未有明显增加，电解铜价格走势震荡偏空。
n 铝锭国内库存基数大、国外库存偏低的情形将使铝价外强内弱的格局得以延续。
n 国内铝锭生产成本上移，库存开始下降，叠加下半年采暖季限产，铝价有可能触底反弹，但整体走势仍偏弱。
Ø 基本金属上半年行情回顾
Ø 铜供需格局趋向宽松，下半年铜价震荡偏空
Ø 铝价外强内弱格局还将延续
Abstract
n Global and domestic mines are in sufficient supply, and TC/RC is expected to rise. The output and import of copper cathodes have increased compared to the same period of last year, but the demand of copper cathodes hasn’t improved yet, and the price of CU will fluctuate downwards in the second half of the year.
n Domestic stock of aluminum ingots being abundant and LME stock of aluminum running low will lead to the continuing trend of weak SHFE AL price and relatively strong LME AL price.
n Since the production cost of domestic aluminum ingots is increasing and the domestic stock is beginning to decline, and the domestic output of aluminum ingots will be constrained in the fourth quarter of 2018 due to the implementation of environmental protection policy, the price of AL may bottom up in the second half of this year, but overall the AL price will remain weak.
Ø Market review of nonferrous metals in 1H18
Ø Copper supply-demand is loose, and the price of CU will fluctuate downwards
Ø The SHFE AL price will be weak while the LME AL price will be relatively strong
20180709前海期货—有色金属产业链半年报—铜供需格局偏宽松 国内铝价弱势难改.pdf
